Epoch
Perspectives

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2022

April 8, 2022 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 2Q 2022 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
January 19, 2022 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 1Q 2022 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »

2021

December 16, 2021 Shareholder Yield: Reflation, Duration and Salvation Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
October 7, 2021 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 3Q 2021 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
June 24, 2021 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 2Q 2021 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
April 15, 2021 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 1Q 2021 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
January 21, 2021 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 4Q 2020 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »

2020

October 6, 2020 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 3Q 2020 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
July 29, 2020 Global Equity Shareholder Yield: Performance Perspective Launch Webcast » View Presentation »
June 25, 2020 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 2Q 2020 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
May 1, 2020 The Death of Dividends: Greatly Exaggerated Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
April 2, 2020 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 1Q 2020 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
February 7, 2020 Two Market Risks: Implications of a Sanders’ Candidacy and the Coronavirus Launch Webcast » View Presentation »
January 22, 2020 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 4Q 2019 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »

2019

October 10, 2019 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 3Q 2019 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
June 25, 2019 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 2Q 2019 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
April 5, 2019 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 1Q 2019 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
January 15, 2019 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 4Q 2018 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »

2018

September 27, 2018 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 3Q 2018 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
June 26, 2018 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 2Q 2018 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »
April 19, 2018 Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook – 1Q 2018 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »

2017

January 26, 2017 EPOCH’S CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK – 4Q 2016 Launch Webcast » View Edited Transcript » View Presentation »

Our Perspectives

The transition to net-zero emissions (NZE) involves a fundamental change in the structure of the economy, and will likely be messy, implying periodic supply shortages and even more volatile energy prices. Further, inflation and nominal interest rates will probably be higher and more volatile, especially relative to the levels of the last two decades. This has not yet been priced into markets.

China has launched a new policy framework, “Common Prosperity,” which escalates government steerage of the economy and features two critical initiatives. First, Beijing is taking action to tame the country’s real estate obsession. Second, the “summer blizzard” of regulatory actions has targeted a wide range of tech-related sectors including fintech, social media, online tutoring and gaming. Here, we examine the implications for investors of the pendulum swinging ever further in favor of the state.

The recent surge in start-ups and unicorns reflects the broadening of the digital revolution across industries, and suggests improving productivity and free cash flow. Further, although the digitization of the economy is still in early earnings, we expect digital platforms to represent the majority of market cap by 2025, with tech, health care and communications the most promising sectors.

Inflation risks are at a four-decade high due to today’s combination of a generous Treasury, an overly tolerant Fed, and a reopening economy. While our base-case scenario assumes only a brief period of above-target inflation, investors should brace themselves for more inflation scares, which will likely remain a key driver of equity markets well into 2022.

During the past two years, CBDC has progressed from a bold speculative concept to a seeming inevitability and will soon be a core feature of our financial ecosystem. The rollout of CBDCs will further accelerate the digitization of the economy, which is the key defining feature of markets over the past decade. This paper explores the implications for monetary policy, the FinTech and payments sectors, and the potential disintermediation of significant swaths of the commercial banking system.

The Cambrian explosion of exciting breakthroughs in AI, autonomous driving, 5G, and cloud computing will drive double-digit growth in semiconductor revenues for the foreseeable future. Superstar firms have come to dominate all subsectors of the increasingly concentrated semiconductor industry, which implies pricing power and explains the sector’s attractive operating margins and return on capital. Valuations are reasonable, and we have a constructive view on the semiconductor sector and believe it possesses considerable upside.

Both sides of the political spectrum have been increasing their calls for regulatory action on the Big Tech companies. Here we explain why tech will continue to be the most dynamic sector of the economy, and why we expect greater breadth in tech market leadership and the emergence of entirely new sub-sectors.