Global Select
Highly concentrated global equity strategy focused on free cash flow generation and allocation
At a Glance
Epoch’s Global Select strategy pursues long-term capital appreciation by investing in a highly concentrated portfolio of global businesses. These companies are selected for their ability to not only generate free cash flow, but most importantly, allocate it toward creating shareholder value. Our bottom-up security selection and risk management process leads to a portfolio of 10 to 15 stocks, representing the highest-conviction ideas of our global investment team.
The Global Select Opportunity
- Distinctly Concentrated Global Equity Strategy -Epoch’s highest investment convictions
- Free Cash Flow Investment Focus -Companies selected based on ability to generate free cash flow and allocate it intelligently to create shareholder value
- Actively Managed –Co-Chief Investment Officers are the portfolio managers on the strategy
- Risk Management Integration in Investment Process-Minimize unintended risks and reduce volatility
Epoch’s Distinct Investment Philosophy and Approach
The bedrock of Epoch’s philosophy is that the growth and applications of free cash flow represent the best predictor of long-term shareholder return. As a result, our security selection process is focused on free-cash-flow metrics and capital allocation, as opposed to traditional accounting-based metrics such as price-to-book and price-to-earnings.
We look for a consistent, straightforward ability to generate free cash flow and to allocate it effectively among internal reinvestment opportunities, acquisitions, dividends, share repurchases and debt pay downs. An essential factor is the evaluation of each company’s management team to confirm their commitment to transparency and building shareholder value. The companies uncovered by this process have inherently less volatility due to their ability to generate cash flow.
The Global Select strategy looks across the concentrated Epoch Choice strategies (Global, Non-U.S. and U.S.) as primary sources for investment ideas in assembling the highly concentrated portfolio. Portfolio management is led by the Co-CIOs, representing the full intellectual property of Epoch’s entire global equity investment team, including
risk management.
The firm’s broader underlying equity strategies incorporate qualitative
and quantitative analysis to identify potential investments, taking into consideration factors that can lead to growing cash flow. Stocks are then subject to rigorous fundamental research. We develop an investment thesis as we assess the sources of the company’s long-term value creation and management’s ability to nurture it. We scrutinize management’s track record of allocating capital, looking for those with the discipline to use free cash flow to maximize return on investment, thereby creating shareholder value. Once a stock has been purchased, we regularly revisit our thesis and typically sell the stock if our price target is reached, our thesis changes or we identify another investment with a better risk-
reward profile.
While the portfolio is constructed from the bottom-up, decisions are made with consideration of the macro context. Epoch’s Investment Policy Group, composed of the Co-CIO’s and senior members of our investment leadership, provides insight and guidance on the global market environment and macroeconomic trends.
We analyze risk as part of the portfolio construction process to monitor portfolio volatility and better ensure the delivery of the strategy’s goals. A senior member of the Risk Management team is a co-portfolio manager on every strategy managed by Epoch, so portfolio leadership is aware of unintended biases and the effect individual securities may have on the portfolio. The portfolio is diversified across sectors and the sizes of individual positions are limited.
Our Perspectives
There have been two monumental crises in the past two decades, the Global Financial Crisis and the current COVID-19 pandemic. While the COVID-19 crisis is crippling financial markets in a similar fashion, monetary policy in the form of QE will not be the silver bullet we need. The solution to the current crisis will require prudent fiscal policy to see us through.
March 16, 2020
Comparing Two Market Crises: A New Type of Crisis Requires a New Solution
There have been two monumental crises in the past two decades, the Global Financial Crisis and the current COVID-19 pandemic. While the COVID-19 crisis is crippling financial markets in a similar fashion, monetary policy in the form of QE will not be the silver bullet we need. The solution to the current crisis will require prudent fiscal policy to see us through.
The dispute between the U.S. and China is clearly not just about trade, or even technology. At stake are the values that will determine the architecture and governance of the global world order.
December 2, 2019
Cold War 2.0: The Platform, the Players, and the Stakes
The dispute between the U.S. and China is clearly not just about trade, or even technology. At stake are the values that will determine the architecture and governance of the global world order.
The current hype about two-sided digital platforms, blitzscaling and winner-takes-most markets has fueled a surge in IPO listings and produced stratospheric valuations that are difficult to reconcile with free-cash-flow (FCF) fundamentals. The big question is, are we repeating the excesses of the dot-com boom? In this paper, we look at the reasoning used by those who think history is repeating itself including IPO supply, profitability and VC funding. We also look at the weaknesses in those arguments and why some believe that the current situation is different from the dot com bubble, such as median age of tech IPOs and sales growth. Finally, we explore how investors can look at these companies through a free cash flow lens.
June 19, 2019
Blitzscale and Hope: Unicorns, IPOs and the Fear of Repeating the Late 1990s
The current hype about two-sided digital platforms, blitzscaling and winner-takes-most markets has fueled a surge in IPO listings and produced stratospheric valuations that are difficult to reconcile with free-cash-flow (FCF) fundamentals. The big question is, are we repeating the excesses of the dot-com boom? In this paper, we look at the reasoning used by those who think history is repeating itself including IPO supply, profitability and VC funding. We also look at the weaknesses in those arguments and why some believe that the current situation is different from the dot com bubble, such as median age of tech IPOs and sales growth. Finally, we explore how investors can look at these companies through a free cash flow lens.
Does a stock’s price and its P/E ratio tell you how much a company is worth? Conventional wisdom says yes, but we think otherwise. In this paper we explore:
- The theory behind the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model and the underappreciated role that ROIC plays in the model
- The P/E ratio and find that it does not tell us what most people think it does, nor does its offshoot, the P/E to growth (PEG) ratio
- How we can use what we have learned about the DCF model to deconstruct P/E ratios in the real world to better understand what they do tell us
June 17, 2019
The P/E Ratio: A User’s Manual
Does a stock’s price and its P/E ratio tell you how much a company is worth? Conventional wisdom says yes, but we think otherwise. In this paper we explore:
- The theory behind the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model and the underappreciated role that ROIC plays in the model
- The P/E ratio and find that it does not tell us what most people think it does, nor does its offshoot, the P/E to growth (PEG) ratio
- How we can use what we have learned about the DCF model to deconstruct P/E ratios in the real world to better understand what they do tell us
If there is a “small-cap effect” then why has the Russell 2000 underperformed the Russell 1000 over time?
January 18, 2019
The Size Paradox
If there is a “small-cap effect” then why has the Russell 2000 underperformed the Russell 1000 over time?
China’s mercantilist behavior, underscored by its “Made in China 2025 initiative,” is in conflict with U.S. demands for greater IP protection, a level playing field and improved market access. Left unresolved, free trade and globalization will be in retreat, with broad economic implications beginning with manufacturers.
December 10, 2018
Trump, Tech and Trade
China’s mercantilist behavior, underscored by its “Made in China 2025 initiative,” is in conflict with U.S. demands for greater IP protection, a level playing field and improved market access. Left unresolved, free trade and globalization will be in retreat, with broad economic implications beginning with manufacturers.
Three developments (the unwinding of QE, the soaring US budget deficit and the impending wall of maturities, especially of corporate bonds) will engender higher volatility and wider credit spreads. There is also a risk that interest rates will start rising for “bad” reasons (that is, an increase in fixed income supply). Each of these outcomes would be a headwind for high duration strategies.
July 2, 2018
The Return of Price Discovery
Three developments (the unwinding of QE, the soaring US budget deficit and the impending wall of maturities, especially of corporate bonds) will engender higher volatility and wider credit spreads. There is also a risk that interest rates will start rising for “bad” reasons (that is, an increase in fixed income supply). Each of these outcomes would be a headwind for high duration strategies.
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) dominates investment thinking today, but the pre-MPT view of the world still holds valuable insights. Our new white paper explores the limits of MPT in aiding successful investing.
April 13, 2018
The Limits of Theory
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) dominates investment thinking today, but the pre-MPT view of the world still holds valuable insights. Our new white paper explores the limits of MPT in aiding successful investing.