|February 23 2017||Trump and Trade: What are the Risks?
In this "Insights" piece we look at President Trump's trade team and how it is likely to implement the protectionist trade views he has held for years. With China being the number one target of potential trade policy, we explore the views held by the various members of the trade team as they relate to China. The piece also identifies other countries that might likely be affected by U.S. trade policies, the likelihood of a trade war and the impact a trade war could have on the U.S. economy. Finally, we discuss the potential implications on equity markets.
|January 01 2017||Vox Populi: In 2017 the Eurozone Will Bend, But Not Break
The rise of populist political parties, a lack of progress on key reforms and tight fiscal policies will present challenges for the euro zone and its lackluster economy in 2017. In our latest paper, CEO and Co-CIO Bill Priest and Investment Strategist Kevin Hebner discuss these issues and the implications for investors.
|December 31 2016||Spotliight on Smaller U.S. Companies in the Current Environment
In a follow up to a piece that was originally featured in our October 2016 Newsletter, U.S. Small and SMID Cap Portfolio Manager Michael Caputo looks at the performance of smaller U.S. companies since the election of Donald Trump and whether the outlook for them has changed.
|November 09 2016||Investment Implications of the U.S. Election
On November 8, 2016, the U.S. elected Donald Trump to become the country's 45th President. The balance of power in Congress remained unchanged with the Republicans retaining a majority in both the House and Senate. In this paper, CEO and Co-CIO Bill Priest and Investment Strategist Kevin Hebner discuss areas of concern for the U.S. economy as well as the positive potential of the election results.
|October 06 2016||Is Japan Investable Through a Cash Flow Prism?
In this paper, CEO and Co-CIO Bill Priest and Investment Strategist Kevin Hebner examine recent trends regarding Japanese corporate governance, buybacks, dividend policies, cash levels, cross-shareholdings and M&A activity to show the impressive changes that are occurring. They discuss whether these changes make Japanese companies more investible through a cash flow prism and identify the most promising sectors for cash-flow focused investors.
|June 22 2016||Brexit Vote: Potential game changer for the U.K. and Europe
On June 23, 2016, the U.K. will vote to either remain in the European Union or leave it. Epoch's general view is that the U.K. would be better served to remain than to leave it. The short-term implications of a vote to leave include significant market turbulence, a weakening GBP, stalled M&A activity and a general flight to quality within the U.K. and possibly globally, but are difficult to fully quantify. In the medium term, the U.K. would likely face a recession, but not a full-blown financial crisis. The biggest risk of a Brexit is that the vote acts as a catalyst for political uncertainties, both domestic (another independence vote for Scotland) and internationally (further encouraging populist movements in France, Italy and others).
|May 03 2016||Have We Hit An Inflection Point?
We expect only modest global GDP growth during 2016 and 2017, coupled with lower-for-longer policy rates. PMIs, which are the best economic indicators for signaling inflections in the cycle, continue to send mixed signals. The outlook for earnings remains challenging and even ex-energy, we expect minimal earnings growth this year. Additionally, equity markets appear to already be fully valued and we see little room for multiple expansion from here. Our cautious perspective is partly due to our view that the global economic outlook is clouded by several secular headwinds. Ultimately, while we are not bearish on the outlook for global equity markets we see only moderate upside and do not believe we have hit a significant inflection point. In that scenario, where should equity portfolios be focused?
|April 29 2016||What Would Negative Interest Rates Mean for U.S. Equity Markets
The U.S. economic recovery appears to be on firmer ground and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates into negative territory during 2016 or even 2017. The Fed is sufficiently worried, however, about anemic global growth and the Unites States' vulnerability to external shocks that it is updating its giving thought to how it might follow the lead of other central banks and introduce a negative interest rate policy (NIRP). How would U.S. equity markets react if the Fed were to cut rates below zero?
|June 15 2015||Cash-Flow Opportunities in the Commercial Aerospace Industry
It is expected that the next twenty years will see a dramatic increase in commercial aircraft production, driven by the demand for air travel and the push to replace airplanes with newer, more fuel efficient versions. In our latest Insight, Epoch Co-CIO, David Pearl, and members of our investment team explore these drivers and our approach to finding the cash flow opportunities in the commercial aerospace industry.
|March 24 2015||Active Share
Active Share has gained increasing acceptance among consultants and plan sponsors in determining whether investment managers are truly active. In our most recent Insight, we provide our view on how to interpret this statistic.
|March 06 2015||Utilizing Utilities in Shareholder Yield
Epoch's most recent Insight piece, Utilizing Utilities in Shareholder Yield, discusses how and why companies in the utilities sector have historically played a significant role in the Shareholder Yield strategies.
|February 14 2014||Rising Interest Rates & Shareholder Yield
A quick look at the potential effects of rising interest rates on Epoch’s Shareholder Yield strategies.
|February 14 2014||Make-or-break time for Abenomics?
A quick look at what could be a pivotal year for Japan as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares to implement his Third Arrow of structural reform.