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EPOCH INSIGHTS

Providing timely and thoughtful perspectives on investment issues – and the broader economic context that drives financial markets – has always been a hallmark of Epoch. We invite you to explore the insights highlighted here and encourage you to share your perspective on these important issues.


Tech is the New Macro Part II: Implications for Labor Markets and Productivity

Part I of our three part Tech is the New Macro series demonstrated how technology will be positive for all three components of ROE. In Part II, we explore the occupations most susceptible to disruption, new jobs that may arise from technology, the puzzling decrease in productivity growth and the effect technology has had on inflation.

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White Papers

The Winds of Change: The Transition from QE to QT

While regulators and many investors are focused on leverage, we are more concerned with liquidity risk, which was at the core of the 2007-2009 crisis and will likely be again at the next one. As central banks move toward "quantitative tightening," higher interest rates and waning liquidity are the most significant global macro risks, especially given that many assets are trading toward the high end of their historical ranges.

What Do We Mean When We Talk About Value

It has long been common practice in the investment world to divide the market up into "value stocks" and "growth stocks." What do these labels really mean? "Value" connotes that the stocks in this category are undervalued, and should therefore outperform over time, while "growth" implies that these are stocks with faster earnings growth. We examined the Russell 1000 Value and Growth indices to find out if these broad categorizations true. That is, do value stock indices outperform consistently over time, and do growth stock indices experience faster earnings growth? Our findings may surprise you. 

Tech is the New Macro: Impacting All Three Components of Return on Equity

The rapid expansion and implementation of technological innovation has become a key factor in the behavior of the economy and capital markets. In this paper, Investment Strategist Kevin Hebner and Co-CIOs Bill Priest and David Pearl explore how tech has become the new macro, including a look at how:

  • Tech is positive for all three return on equity (ROE) components
  • Profit margins have soared over the last two decades
  • Asset utilization improves with technology
  • Tech impacts leverage and payout ratios
  • Platforms and their network effects have resulted in a winner-takes-all market
  • Disruptive innovation will affect all economic sectors

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Insights

Trump and Trade: What are the Risks?

In this "Insights" piece we look at President Trump's trade team and how it is likely to implement the protectionist trade views he has held for years. With China being the number one target of potential trade policy, we explore the views held by the various members of the trade team as they relate to China. The piece also identifies other countries that might likely be affected by U.S. trade policies, the likelihood of a trade war and the impact a trade war could have on the U.S. economy. Finally, we discuss the potential implications on equity markets.

Vox Populi: In 2017 the Eurozone Will Bend, But Not Break

The rise of populist political parties, a lack of progress on key reforms and tight fiscal policies will present challenges for the euro zone and its lackluster economy in 2017. In our latest paper, CEO and Co-CIO Bill Priest and Investment Strategist Kevin Hebner discuss these issues and the implications for investors. 

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Webcasts & Transcripts

Epoch’s Capital Markets Outlook - October 2017

Epoch's Co-Chief Investment Officers Bill Priest and David Pearl, as well as Global Investment Strategist Kevin Hebner discuss the key reasons for our continued constructive outlook on equity markets. Topics include weaker inflation, the investment case for Europe, what we like and we don'tabout Japanese equities and the impact of Technology on capital markets.

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Video / Audio

David Pearl on Bloomberg Radio

Epoch Co-Chief Investment Officer David Pearl appeared on Bloomberg Radio where he discussed our current investment outlook, and why we use free cash flow to evaluate companies.

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Bill Priest Appears on BNN’s Money Talk

CEO, Co-CIO and Portfolio Manager Bill Priest appeared on BNN's Money Talk with Kim Parlee where he discussed potential tax reform in the U.S. and the repatriation of cash that might follow and the impact technology is having on the capital markets.

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Implications for Investors following Britain’s Vote on European Union.

Epoch's CEO, Co-CIO and Portfolio Manager Bill Priest and Global Investment Strategist Kevin Hebner discussed the implications of the U.K.'s vote to leave the European Union.

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